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Main » Files » SECRETS » PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN PAPER
[ Download from this server (51.6Kb) ] 2011-04-28, 7:44 PM
30th OCTOBER 2010



SECURITY CHALLENGES OF 21ST CENTURY:
A REGIONAL AND NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
(PAKISTAN)


1. I consider it a singular honour and a privilege to be invited to
8th ASEAN Regional Forum Meeting to discuss ‘Enhancing
Strategic Studies to Meet the Challenges of 21st Century’. I will be
speaking on ‘Security Challenges of the 21st Century and present
Pakistani Perspective in South Asian context’. It is a complex and
multi dimensional topic and it would be presumptuous of me to
pretend that I can present a comprehensive assessment of the
security issues facing the South Asian region. All that I would
attempt to do is to outline the contours of the Security Challenges
that South Asia faces in general and Pakistan in particular.


3. Pakistan as indeed South Asia face a host of security
challenges that include territorial disputes, poor economic
performance, high population growth, scarcity of resources such
as water, energy, food, etc, terrorism, poor governance,
corruption, etc. I will however, restrict myself to the challenges
threatening peace in the region, rise of fundamentalism leading to
terrorism, low economic growth and issues emerging in Post
9/11 period.


4. Let me begin by introducing my country. Pakistan is
located in South Asia and is bordered by Iran in the West,
Afghanistan in the West and Northwest, China in the North and
India in the East. A narrow Wakhan finger 7-30 miles wide
separates it from Tajikistan. The strategic Strait of Hormuz lies
close to its border in the Southwest. History and culture binds it
to South Asia while its Islamic faith and values tie it with Muslim
countries of the Middle East and North Africa. Its 150 million
population makes it the 6th most populous state in the world and it
is the second largest Muslim country. It has the 7th largest military
in the world, which is armed with nuclear and ballistic missiles. Mr.
Paul Wolfowitz US Deputy Defence Secretary told the House
Armed Services Committee recently that Pakistan’s Military is the
most important instrument of influence.


5. Pakistan serves as a link between Middle East, North Africa
and Central Asia to the west and north-west and South Asia and
SE Asia to the east with capacity to affect regional and
international stability. Yale University historian Paul Kennedy
regards Pakistan a pivotal state. A pivotal state is the one that is
so important regionally that its collapse would spell trans-boundary
mayhem while its steady economic progress and stability would
bolster its region’s economic vitality and political soundness and
benefit regional trade and investment.”


6. Historical, Pakistan’s perspective on security ever since its
independence in 1947 has been dominated by its dispute over
Kashmir with its eastern neighbour. The details of the dispute are
well known to this august gathering and needs no further
elucidation. There are of course the Pakistani version and the
Indian version of the dispute and the two are poles apart. Without
entering into a blame game as to which is the guiltier party, the
sad truth is that the dispute has led to two full fledged military
conflicts between them and a major border skirmish in 1999 that
had the potential of escalating into a devastating nuclear
conflagration in the region. Besides we barely averted war just 2
years ago due to international mediation.


7. The dispute is primarily responsible for a debilitating arms
race in the sub-continent since 1947. The arms race continues
unabated and there is no likelihood of any let up till the Kashmir
dispute is resolved. For the dispute to be resolved, both sides
need to display patience and forbearance and move away from
their maximal positions and only then an acceptable formula can
be worked out. Statesmanship of the highest order needs to be
displayed by the leaders of both India and Pakistan.


8. The Arms race and instability in the region has stymied the
economy and led to abject poverty in the region. The economic
performance of both India and Pakistan are as displayed:





INDIA                                                               

PAKISTAN
Rate of GD (P) 
Growth 
4.3%

4.5%

Defence Spending 
as % of GDP
3 % 

4.6 %
Illiterate Population
503 Million  

82.8 Million
Population Living
Below Poverty

25%


(262 Million) 

36%
(52.7 Million)




9. As is amply evident from this table, high military
expenditure has resulted in low rates of GDP growth and literacy,
which has led to a high percentage of population living below the
poverty line. This has imposed severe restrictions on human
development and resulted in limited social and economic
opportunities and much human suffering in South Asia. According
to the latest ILO Report, unemployment rate in South Asia is
around 17 million, which is more than 13% of the total population
of the region while another 30% population lives below the
poverty line. The conflict between India and Pakistan is primarily
responsible for this. The UNDP Human Development Report
2003 has given world ranking of 127 and 142 to India and
Pakistan respectively in the Human Development Index,. This
indicates the effects of high military expenditure by the two major
South Asian countries. Overall, this provokes resentment and
discontent amongst the people, which leads to anger and violence.
10. Ladies and Gentlemen, this brings me to the next challenge
facing the region. Rise of Fundamentalism leading to Terrorism.
However, this menace needs a deeper analysis.


11. As you all know, Afghanistan was invaded by the erstwhile
Soviet Union in 1979. Pakistan bore the main brunt of the chaos
that followed. Over 3 million Afghan refugees took shelter in
Pakistan while the Afghans started resisting the Soviet Forces.
The resistance was declared Jihad or holy war. Muslim youths
were encouraged to come to Pakistan from all over the World for
training and then go to Afghanistan to wage jihad. (PAUSE)
Mujahideen were supplied liberally with sophisticated weapons,
which enabled them to take a heavy toll of the Soviet forces.
Unable to withstand these losses, the Soviet Union withdrew form
Afghanistan in 1989.


12. Civil war broke out amongst the heavily armed Afghan
Mujahideen soon after the Soviet withdrawal and Afghan refugees
refused to go back. Use of religion to wage war in Afghanistan
had let the religious genie out of the bottle. Limited economic
opportunities, high rate of un-employment and low rate of literacy
in Pakistan coupled with Jihadi teachings prevailing in the region
at that time led to religious extremism. Presence of armed and
battle hardened Afghans and jihadi elements in Pakistan
inevitably resulted in violence and terrorism.


13. In September 2001, Pakistan joined the War against
terrorism and provided invaluable support in the fight against
terrorism. General Tommy Franks in his book ‘The American
Soldier’ has acknowledged that without Pakistan’s active support,
US could not have succeeded in launching Operation Enduring
Freedom against Taliban. Pakistani forces are still battling Al-
Qaida militants on Pakistan Afghan border as well as in its cities
as I speak. Today Pakistan is bearing the main brunt of Al-Qaida
terrorism. President Musharraf has survived two attempts on his
life, the Prime Minister has barely escaped assassination attempt
and its military commanders have been targeted in urban areas.
However, I want to reiterate that majority of Pakistanis are
moderate Muslims and support the Government efforts. It is only a
small misguided minority which has been driven to extremism on
account of poverty, lack of education and economic opportunities.
The US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, has recently stated
that terrorists are being created faster than the US could kill, which
acknowledges the same facts. Thus, to root out extremism and
terrorism we need to long take long-term view of the problem. We
must continue the battle against extremist’s elements, but at the
same time we have to revive Pakistan’s economy, create jobs and
provide justice and hope to the poor so that the breeding ground of
the menace of terrorism is rooted out.


14. Now a few words on the issue of nuclear proliferation. The
very idea that some rogue elements or fringe groups could get
hold of a crude nuclear weapon or even a dirty bomb remains a
nightmarish scenario. The matter came to a head when one of the
leading Pakistani nuclear scientists was exposed as nuclear
proliferator during the period 1989-99. Pakistan reacted quickly
against the errant scientist and took punitive measures against
him and his associates. Though he got a presidential pardon, but
the public humiliation of a man of his status, who was revered as a
national hero was considered sufficient. I would like to draw a
distinction between the period when command and control system
did not exist and the period since 2000 to-date when Pakistan has
in place fail safe measures including a robust command and
control mechanism to ensure that its strategic assets remain
secure and chances of nuclear weapons or nuclear technology
proliferation is reduced to zero. Pakistan’s record since 2000 is
impressive and I would like to hold out an assurance that
proliferation has not occurred since then and will not take place in
future.


15. I would take this opportunity to talk about the custodial
control of our nuclear weapons. In Pakistan, Custodial control
has been established on a multi-layered concept at the National
Command Authority and a dedicated secretariat responsible for
safety and security has been developed in the form of Strategic
Plans Division. Its composition is as shown. Amongst other
aspects of security, a robust Personnel Reliability Programme,
induction of modern surveillance techniques and tight export
control measures have ensured strict custodial controls of our
nuclear weapons. Handling of these weapons cannot be
undertaken by amateurs or novices simply by reading a manual or
after rudimentary training of semi-educated zealots in the
mountains. Without the essential components and sound technical
expertise, these weapons cannot be employed. In Pakistan we
have fool-proof systems to ensure that various components remain
in safe custody and cannot be taken away by unwanted people.
Our scientists are now accounted for and cannot be involved in
any unlawful activities in future. I want to assure the house that our
weapons are in safe custody the chances of their falling in the
wrong hands does not arise.


16. In the post 9/11 Period, the Doctrines of Pre-emption and
Regime Change had set alarm bells ringing in South Asia. Citing
these doctrines, India declared that it had the right to launch
preemptive strikes against Pakistan to defend itself. These
statements were rightly rejected by US leaders since India faces
none of the threats to its security that US had faced, which
compelled it to resort to these doctrines
So What is the way ahead?


18. In my opinion, the peace process currently underway
between India and Pakistan must continue and both countries
need to show greater understanding of each other’s position on
Kashmir - which is the core issue between the two countries.
President Musharraf has stated that if India took one step towards
peace in Kashmir, Pakistan will takes two steps. That is the
approach which is required for a just solution of Kashmir dispute.
This process requires flexibility and mutual trust, however, the
process cannot continue forever.


19. To develop trust and avoid mishaps, we must undertake
Confidence Building Measures, which would develop tolerance
and better understanding. Some measures are in place such as
the Exchange of Information about military forces, facilities and
activities, Communications Measures for use during crises i.e.
hotlines at the GHQ levels, Notification Measures including
advance notification of troop movements and exercises, etc. Some
other measures may be initiated to improve the atmosphere of
trust and promote better understanding such as Track II
Diplomacy, Preferential Trade Agreements, Trade Fairs,
Individual Contacts, Intra-regional Transportation Agreement,
Cultural Exchanges, bilateral tourism, etc. At the same time it
would be prudent to make regional forums such as SAARC more
effective for mutual consultations and benefit of the entire region.


20. Pakistan’s economy must be revived to reduce poverty and
unemployment which will eliminate the breeding grounds of
extremism and terrorism. For this, Pakistan requires the help of
other countries, which can be provided in the shape of foreign
investment. Being a pivotal state, revival of economy in Pakistan
will benefit the entire South Asia region. Only the revival of our
economy will eradicate the breeding grounds of terrorism.
Bombing and killing of terrorists alone will not eliminate the
scourge of terrorism. It will at best provide a temporary reprieve
and the menace will come back stronger than ever before.


21. In order to reform the misguided Muslim youth, President
Musharraf has given his vision for ‘Enlightened Moderation’. He
has urged the Muslims to undertake self-introspection to
determine who we are, what do we stand for and what do we
want? We must face stark realities and avoid the path of
confrontation, which only lead to blood-shed. Pakistan is taking
this path to achieve progress and development. For this, we are
concentrating on human resource development through poverty
alleviation, providing health and education and providing hope
and justice to the people. We are also working to rejuvenate
Organization for Islamic Countries (OIC) to look after the Muslims
collectively. This will pacify everyone and help achieve the goal of
peace world-wide and lead to progress and development.


22. Peace between India and Pakistan would reap tremendous
benefit for the entire region. Oil and gas pipelines between Iran
and energy rich Central Asian Republics in the west and energy
starved India east of Pakistan would provide energy at the lowest
rate. Transit trade through Pakistan would provide the shortest
land route for trade between India and West and Central Asia. All
this would become possible only after peaceful resolution of
Kashmir dispute.
23. Misgivings about the Doctrine of Preemption and Regime
Change must be removed in South Asia. Everyone in the region
as indeed in the world is entitled to have guarantees to live in
peace.


24. As I have argued in my paper, terror groups proliferate in
extreme poverty where injustice prevails. National security can
be compromised either through naked external aggression or a
break-down of law and order due to internal issues from within. Of
the two factors, internal issues have become more prominent in
the 21st century, which undermines the security of a state.
Alleviation of poverty therefore is the key to enhancement of
security in South Asia in general and Pakistan in particular.


25. Since Second World War, many nations have generally
resorted to military means to settle their disputes which in almost
all cases has provided no solution and in the bargain bankrupted
and impoverished the adversaries. A realization appears to have
dawned that conflict resolution of the bitterest disputes is best
achieved through discussions and dialogues rather than through
armed conflicts. This is the silver lining I discern in the otherwise
very dark clouds of insecurity around us. And this is my final
message to all of us and on this optimistic note I would like to end.
Thank you for your patience.


1. Statement before ‘The House Armed Services Committee’
August 10, 2004
2. Faruqui, Ahmad ‘Rethinking the National Security of
Pakistan’ Ashgate Publishing Company, Burlington USA 2003,
ISBN 0-7546-1497-2 (www.ashgate.com), pg 1.
3 The Daily News Karachi, June 9, 2004
4. World Defence Almanac 2003-04, Military Technology
(MIL TECH 1/2004) Issue No 1-2004, Vol XXVIII, Bonn, Germany
ISSN 0722-3226 (Pages 288 & 312)
5. Global Employment Trends for Youth, 2004, International
Labour Office, Geneva, 2004, ISBN 92-2-115997-3 (Table 4 pg
15). www.ilo.org/trends
6. Human Development Report 2004, United Nations
Development Programme, New York 2004, ISBN 0-19-522146,

www.hdr.undp.org/report/global/2004
Category: PAKISTAN | Added by: PRANJAL
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